If the United States agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, ABC, The Information, CBS, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, the Associated Press, and Politico.

An agreement also made with other countries (i.e. multilaterally) is still encompassed if the United States participates. "A new Iran-US nuclear deal" means a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran that (1) imposes verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, including limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations, AND (2) provides for the lifting, suspension, or modification of at least one US economic sanction on Iran in exchange for Iran's nuclear commitments.